DUBLIN (AFP)--Ireland is poised to vote narrowly in favor of a key European Union reform treaty in a referendum next week, according to the final opinion poll in the campaign being released Sunday. The Sunday Business Post newspaper/Red C survey gave those backing the Lisbon Treaty a three-point lead on 42%, compared to 39% for the "no" side. The knife-edge finding, which suggested rising support for opponents, illustrates the struggle still facing Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen as he bids to secure a "yes" vote in Thursday's referendum, which is being watched closely by fellow E.U. leaders. On Thursday, another poll in the Irish Times newspaper gave the "no" camp the lead for the first time, placing it 5 perecentage points ahead and saying its support had doubled in the last three weeks. The Lisbon Treaty aims to streamline decision-making in the E.U. following recent expansion and would create a full-time E.U. president and foreign policy chief. Ireland is the only country in the European Union holding a popular vote on it and, if the treaty is rejected by its less than 4 million voters, it is expected to cause chaos across the bloc, which covers 500 million people. The Sunday Business Post said that the "no" side had increased its support by six points since the last poll two weeks ago but many on the "no" side say they are not certain to vote. Among the 50% of voters who say they are absolutely certain to vote, the yes side leads by nine points. Even among those who are certain to vote, 17% say they have not yet made up their minds which side to support, it said. "The Lisbon Treaty now teeters on the brink, following strong gains for the 'no' side in the past fortnight," wrote the paper's political editor Pat Leahy. All the main Irish political parties - apart from the left-wing Sinn Fein, led by Gerry Adams - are supporting the treaty, which also has strong support in the media. But many voters say they do not properly understand it and opposition groups like Libertas, led by businessman Declan Ganley, have waged effective "no" campaigns on a number of different points. For its part, Libertas says that, while it is generally pro-European, this treaty offers Ireland a poor deal in Europe and would lead to the over-centralization of power. Cowen argues that Ireland must vote "yes" to safeguard its economic interests by affirming its commitment to Europe. He said Friday that the uncertainty caused by rejecting the treaty would be damaging in "challenging economic times", while Finance Minister Brian Lenihan warned that a "no" vote could do "incalculable damage" to the country. A total of 1,000 voters were questioned for the poll on Tuesday, Wednesday and the previous Friday. In 2001, Ireland sent shockwaves through the EU when it rejected the Nice Treaty on institutional reform and enlargement. That decision was reversed in another referendum in 2002. This time around, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso has warned that "there is no plan B".
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