By Andy Georgiades Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES TORONTO -(Dow Jones)- Biovail Corp. (BVF) has signed a marketing partnership for Aplenzin, a new formulation of its Wellbutrin XL drug approved in the U.S. back in April.
Wellbutrin XL was Biovail's biggest-selling drug until generics moved in and carved out three-quarters of the revenues. Aplenzin, which uses a new salt in the formulation, was developed as a line extension product to limit the loss of sales to generics.
While GlaxoSmithKline plc (GSK) markets the original Wellbutrin XL, Biovail went with a different partner for Aplenzin - Sanofi-Aventis's (SNY) U.S. unit. Biovail's supply price to its partner will range between 25-35% of net sales. Other terms weren't disclosed.
Two of the drug's three dosage strengths - 348mg and 522mg - are expected to be launched in the first quarter of 2009.
Biovail spokesman Nelson Isabel couldn't share any details about the marketing strategy for the drug due to confidentiality provisions in the agreement, but noted that the company is "confident" in Sanofi-Aventis's ability to sell the drug.
"Aplenzin is alcohol resistant and our animal data suggest it has a better safety profile as it relates to seizures," he wrote in an e-mail message.
Cosme Ordonez, analyst at GMP Securities, believes the presence of generic competition will undermine Aplenzin's commercial opportunity. He estimated that, based on a 25% supply price, Aplenzin revenue to Biovail could measure $7.5 million in 2009 and $13.8 million in 2010. Ordenez estimates peak sales of about $150 million.
"Although the revenue contribution for 2009 remains relatively small, the launch of Aplenzin with the recent launch of Xenazine and potential inlicensing/acquisitions in the (central nervous system) space will together contribute to help support (Biovail's) dividend," Ordonez wrote in a report. Xenazine is the company's first product acquired under its new strategy of treating diseases of the central nervous system.
But the company has a long way to go to fully-replace lost revenues for its Wellbutrin franchise, which contributed $450 million in revenue to Biovail in 2006. He sees Wellbutrin revenues of just $119 million for 2008.
"We believe Biovail will need to acquire and/or in-license additional products focused on the (central nervous system) space in order to offset Wellbutrin's decline," he wrote. "We are thus encouraged that Biovail remains focused on its new strategic plan targeting niche CNS candidate medicines."
He raised his share price target to $14.50 from $13.75, and kept his buy rating, noting that the share price is depressed and investors would be wise to "revisit the story."
Biovail continues to search for a development partner for BVF-045, which combines Aplenzin with another undisclosed anti-depressant. The company said it wants a partner to help absorb the risks and costs associated with studies required for regulatory approval, and doesn't plan to take the drug forward alone.
Company Web Site: http://www.biovail.com
-Andy Georgiades, Dow Jones Newswires; 416-306-2031; andy.georgiades@dowjones.com
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Publié le 22 Décembre 2008 Copyright © 2008 Dowjones