By Gregory Meyer
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- The U.S. government's foremost energy forecasting agency, for months an unlikely oil bull, has changed its tune in a big way.
After sticking with one of the most aggressive forecasts for oil demand and prices, the federal Energy Information Administration Wednesday acquiesced to the stark new economic landscape and slashed both.
The EIA, the analysis and statistics wing of the U.S. Energy Department, now sees benchmark light, sweet crude oil prices averaging $63.50 a barrel next year. Last month it saw $112 oil in 2009.
The agency also now sees world demand growing sluggishly, by 80,000 barrels a day this year and 40,000 barrels a day next year. Last month it saw demand growth of 330,000 barrels a day in 2008 and 780,000 barrels a day in 2009.
The EIA also dropped its projection that demand for crude produced by member countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would outstrip supplies well into next year.
The drastic revisions come after a month in which economists have dumped earlier economic forecasts and begun to take seriously prospects for global recession. Between Oct. 7, when its last outlook was released, and Wednesday, the EIA said the economic growth outlook it uses had fallen a full percentage point for 2009, to 1.8% from 2.8%.
"The recent dramatic deterioration in the outlook for economic growth in the United States and the rest of the world has led to a significant reduction in this Outlook's assumptions for world economic growth and projections of energy demand and prices," the agency said.
As recently as September, the EIA projected crude would average $126.50 a barrel next year, a forecast higher than that of many Wall Street firms. Its latest turnabout - which comes on the heels of a relentless slide in crude prices - makes it one of the lowest. Goldman Sachs sees crude at more than $72 early next year and Merrill Lynch at $91, for example.
The EIA now predicts crude will hover between $60 and $65 for the duration of 2009, warning that the financial crisis could drive it lower.
Steadier prices would be helped by a larger cushion of surplus capacity inside OPEC, which the EIA said it expects will rise above 3 million barrels a day for the first time since 2003. The agency revised downward its estimate of OPEC's oil output in 2009, saying the sharp decline in oil prices would lead to "compliance that is above historical levels" among the OPEC members subject to quotas.
It estimates OPEC output, at 32.3 million barrels a day in October, will drop to 31.8 million barrels a day in the first quarter of 2009 and stay near there for the full year. OPEC's Oct. 24 decision to cut its output ceiling by 1.5 million barrels a day will yield a real cut of about 1 million barrels a day, a compliance rate of about 70%.
-By Gregory Meyer, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-4377; greg.meyer@dowjones.com
(David Bird and Anna Raff in New York contributed to this article.)
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 12, 2008 17:10 ET (22:10 GMT)

Publié le 12 novembre 2008 Copyright © 2008 Dowjones