CARACAS (AFP)--Venezuelan local elections over the weekend will test the popularity of President Hugo Chavez and his 21st-century socialism, a year after the anti-U.S. leader lost a referendum on extending his authority.
Chavez, in power for almost 10 years, has crossed the country campaigning for his party's candidates, ensuring that Sunday's polls for governors and mayors will also be seen as a referendum on him and his socialist plans.
"My destiny is at stake," he said recently. "Whether Chavez keeps governing Venezuela will depend on what happens on Nov. 23."
Famous for his fiery language, Chavez has threatened to imprison opponents, or even send tanks onto the streets if his party loses in the populous northwestern state of Carabobo.
Some 300 candidates, mainly from the opposition, have been prevented from running in the elections.
About 17 million Venezuelans are eligible to vote for 22 governors, 328 mayors and 233 heads of regional councils for four-year terms.
Polls show Chavez's United Socialist Party of Venezuela, or PSUV, will likely hold most states and cities, but might lose some posts as voters express concern over corruption and inefficiency.
Critics say Chavez's constant campaigning alongside local candidates has sidelined local issues, such as rising insecurity and public services.
"Chavez avoids these problems because the evaluation of gubernatorial management in these spheres is terribly bad," said Luis Vicente Leon, an analyst from Datanalisis.
"He leads discussions onto areas where he feels stronger, such as attempts to overthrow him or revolution."
Chavez, 54, led a failed military coup in 1992 and was briefly overthrown for two days in April, 2002.
But until last year's narrow referendum loss, he had always emerged from polls with convincing victories.
The opposition currently controls two states - northwestern Zulia and northeastern Nueva Esparta - and another four are in the hands of Chavez dissidents.
In one hotly-contested poll, a dissident candidate is running against Chavez's older brother to replace his father as governor of southwestern Barinas state.
Surveys suggest the opposition could win between five and seven governorships in their bid to gain back some lost power.
"To win five, six, seven or 10 governorships (or) to get 100 mayor's offices will be a victory," said Gerardo Blyde, an opposition leader and candidate in a Caracas municipality.
Observers say that opposition gains in symbolic areas of the oil-rich OPEC country, such as Caracas or big states his allies have controlled for years, would do the most damage.
"Even in the most negative scenario, the opposition can finish stronger," said analyst Carlos Romero.
Many opponents see the local elections as a possible turning point, with a chance to gain momentum and unsettle the plans of the popular president, who was re-elected in 2006 for a six-year term.
Chavez, a friend to Iran, Russia and Cuba, is highly aware of his need for a visible victory to push forward his cause.
"To advance with his revolution he needs a really high level of popularity," Leon said.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 21, 2008 04:06 ET (09:06 GMT)

Publié le 21 novembre 2008 Copyright © 2008 Dowjones